To labour is to struggle

A week in politics

Garry — Mon, 11 Oct 2010 20:13:22 +0000

The objective was clear. To unite the party to the prospect of a full term coalition, to illustrate that the pain would be shared by all and to blunt any momentum by Labour’s ‘New Generat-on’. Where did it all go wrong? Well where didn’t it?
The prospect of middle class parents being deprived of their child benefit drew a storm from the predictable outlets of the Telegraph and Mail. The fact that the threshold was almost twice that of the current household income seems to have passed some by. A progressive tax system must seek to reward entrepreneurship, provide a safety netting for those less well off, but encourage those less well off to achieve greater things. I can’t see where a middle class tax benefit falls into this category.

The case for the defence is a poor one. Not a day goes by without the favoured outlets being briefed by Fox or Osborne’s men. Our defence procurement has been a shambles for decades. Last generation equipment being ready for next generation battles. The opportunity to reduce the time from conception to implementation should be grasped with both hands, as per the opportunity to actually increase the proportion of fighting men (and women) in the army. It seems that what is needed is not yet another outdated strategic review but a root and branch reform of the MoD.

Alan Johnson’s appointment is an interesting one. To mollify the Davidians, a stalking horse for the Balls-Cooper puppet show? Johnson is a heavyweight but is not in his element and will have little time to adjust and hurt the coalition when the spending review is unveiled. An opportunity missed by Labour.

George Osborne’s Conservative Conference Speech

Garry — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:00:40 +0000

As GO took to the stage, he left a dramatic 3 second pause to start. Was he lost for words? Would these words have any substance?

Our politicians are obsessed with the past as a slate to wipe our mistakes and Osborne’s speech started with the ‘failures’ of the current government as a checklist. But the use of statistics merely serves to illustrate that one can read, not that one has the cognitive skills to analyse the issues, design a strategy and implement a successful solution. This speech was directed to the party faithful and the biggest unscripted cheer was a reduction of quango specialists second guessing locally elected officials. I’ll believe that when I see it. The Conservatives invented this tactic in the eighties to counter free spending Labour councils.

But we wanted a message to the nation. The Shadow Chancellor reiterated policy statements made over the last year: a reduction in MPs numbers, a 5% cut in MPs pay, a pay ceiling equivalent to the PM’s salary, loss of child trusts to middle income families, retention of the 50% tax rate but nothing new and no tangible theme. There was no reference to the raising of VAT and this will come. Perhaps the fiscal task we face is too onerous to have an economic dream, but once the Augean stables have been cleansed, where is the ideology?

Osborne is often described as a lightweight (amongst many comments, some borne out of inverse class snobbery). His detractors will have found little to add here in these 33 minutes but nor would his supporters.

Public Sector Pay Freeze

Garry — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:17:37 +0000

The Labour government’s spoiler declaration today was another pathetic attempt at gesture politics. If you truly wanted to make a gesture then 1) Freeze all public sector pay between £30,000 and £100,000; 2) All pay at or above.would be slashed by 10%. 3) All public sector bodies would be instructed to cut their contractor pay rates by 15%.
Schools, hospitals and social workers to name but a few pay large of their budget to contract workers. This must be addressed for both short and long term reasons.

Conservative Party Conference Week

Garry — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 08:39:51 +0000

As the conference kicks off, the Tories will seek to place an emphasis today on welfare. However the Fourth Estate are not interested. They want blood and gore over Europe. DC’s Faustian pact with the europhobes was always going to backfire but what a time to do so. Cameron needs to stick it to the Neanderthals and say “It is power on my terms, or no power”. The Conservatives will emerge from the May election the strongest party but a hung parliament is in the balance if the Continent is allowed to dictate the discussion.

Tory Banks Policy

Garry — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:42:35 +0000

Abolish the FSA, Transfer powers to the BofE is the synopsis.

: DC introduces Tory Bank Policy White Paper

There is no doubt that the tripartite system failed. Too many macro decisions fell in the gaps in between and the idea of panic in the air over the three week period was palpable. The idea of a financial policy committee is a good macro decisioning tool and its position within the BofE seems a sensible one.

Overall, the Tory Bank Policy looks stable, however the devil will be in the detail. I would like to see an explanation of what the Treasury’s role in this will be in the future. Outsourcing financial overseeing should not lead to a dereliction of duty by the government of the day.

The Dirty Tricks have started

Garry — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:12:22 +0000

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jul/08/murdoch-papers-phone-hacking

Clearly Mr Coulson, former NOW editor, now the Conservative Party communications director, is being smeared by association. This story has been around for some time but is being released now (by the left wing Guardian Newspaper), to disrupt the Conservative Party. Expect more stories ‘breaking’ about senior members of the Tories as we approach the election. Should there be enough instant damage then GB would call an October election. But I doubt this will happen, a drip feed through to a May 2010 election is more likely, as Labour cross their fingers and hope desperately for some for of evidence of ‘green shoots’.

UK Public Spending – a business viewpoint

Garry — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 16:36:32 +0000

I am at the excellent Global Leader Summit being hosted by London Business School.

Among the many interesting topics is a discussion on the down turn and its perceived length. It’s clear through overt discussions that the UK public finances are being seen as a key (if not the key) to future growth. Jeremy Darroch of Sky in particular pointed to the extent which the UK public sector permeates the UK economy (a point which is almost saturation in some geographical areas). This view was expanded by Paul Polman of Unilever who also pointed to the need for increased saving by the consumers.

Public Spending is a tightrope which must be tightened but if pulled too tight will kill off any greenshoots of recovery (illusory or otherwise). It is therefore with regret that our government have sought to use the uncertain economic climate as an excuse for ‘smoke and mirrors’ speeches and not firm figures.

David Cameron Monthly News Conference

Garry — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:37:17 +0000

Synopsis:

DC came out fighting effectively calling GB a coward with regard to the backing down over spending plans. Indeed he again explicitly said that the Tories will bring in spending cuts. This catches out the government who are hiding behind the “who knows what will happen to the economy?”

A pointed call for the release of the current years expenses to have less blank ink, revealing addresses.

A clever call to retain 2nd jobs for MPs using the argument that career politicians is not what the people want. I am of the opinion that it should be compulsory for MPs to have had two years experience in a job OUTSIDE politics. Get out of the Westminster bubble folks!

No date given on spending specifics. This is the correct approach to play. One cannot show ones hand when the government have said nothing. Channel 4 tried to corral DC into an autumn deadline and asked about the housing plan brought in by the govt. DC batted this away.

Speaker Froth

Garry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:10:57 +0000

The media obsession with the appointment of the new Speaker is a diversion. Whilst the unseating of the previous Speaker was a microcosm of the public’s discontent, the interest in the appointment of a new Establishment figure is not. The general public do not differentiate between good MPs and bad MPs, they see the entire lower house as one cesspit of corruption and self interest. Only transparency can provide this, not a new face under wig and inside stockings, not another quango and certainly not the Prime Minister telling us that he’s the man to take us out of the ‘bust’, he presided over and claimed to have abolished.

Gordon Brown’s speech on Tues June 16th 2009

Garry — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 13:02:20 +0000

I shall avoid commenting on the rhetoric and go to the bare bones (trust me, it was mind numbing in a reality TV awkward manner – lots of letters from the public, Oprah Winfrey-esque rubbish).
GB basically said that under Labour, you get more money for the NHS, Tax Credit, Education whereas the Tories will cut these.
This is the propaganda that the public will be faced with for the next twelve months. The lasts gasps of a dying man. When will this man admit some culpability over this recession created under his Chancellorship instead of hiding behind “world recession” nonsense!
This ‘spending cuts’ argument against the Tories had its validity 24 months ago but the fact is that cuts must take place whichever party is in charge. The only point of discussion is where these will be applied. By ringfencing the NHS, George Osborne has forced Labour into the screeching of “10% cuts” knowing that cuts and tax increases must be applied. The public will be wary of this mantra by next June however and the msg of austerity will soak in. GB should only have begun this discussion if he intends to hold an autumn election. Or perhaps he does?
GB did omit that the last 12 years have been a historical time of calm hence the government’s ability to increase spending and increase taxes stealithy (think fiscal drag). Unless the govt comes out and is honest with its plans and not hide behind talk of “who knows what interest rates will be next year” and “we don’t know how much the economy will grow”, it will be swept out of power leaving a rump of a presence in Parliament. What is the point of the Treasury fiscal models, if not to plan for all scenarios?

UKIP fills the gap

Garry — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 10:37:20 +0000

With all this talk of Labour’s demise in the European elections and the rise of the BNP, too little attention has been paid to the rise of UKIP. In Nigel Farage, the party has an eloquent individual who gave the best (and most non partisan) assessment of the election results over the last 48 hours. His press conference did not gloat and correctly identified the weaknesses in the Conservative’s position of Europe. The promise of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty has had too many caveats. Whether or not and to what degree the UK stays in the EU, a greater degree of honesty MUST be employed by all parties with the public.
- What proportion of legislation employed per annum originates from the EU?
- What proportion of those EU laws emanate directly from the elected (by the public) officials?
- What do the UK parties intend to do about the wasteful Common Agricultural Policy which:
: pays the farmers of the ‘old’ EU more than that of the new EU?
: is a direct obstacle in each and every free trading round with the rest of the world?
: increases the poverty of the lesser developed world?
Is there any button which the CAP does not press when one is looking for an insiduous use of public money? The CAP is the figurehead of a wasteful system whose few good policies are outweighed by its many unnecessary and poorly thought out ideas. There is not enough space in this blog to express my disgust at the largesse of the many officials.
By perverting the traditional axis of UK politics, UKIP will increase its share of the vote in the general election, votes which could prove crucial in the North West for David Cameron. Mr Cameron need not change into some snarling anti EU-phobe. But what he must do is transplant the ideas he has put forward for the UK to the EU. That of, transparency, the idea that politicians are public servants; and subsidiarity, the idea that decisions will be made at the lowest feasible levels.

Titanic Labour

Garry — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 10:20:08 +0000

Not the force of Greek myth but the early 21st century sinking ship. As the rats leave (Jaqui Smith and Hazel Blears at time of writing), it leaves only the inevitably poor showing in the European elections to draw out the plotters. But no one is brave enough to play the part of Brutus or indeed Michael Heseltine.

The truth is that the Labour party are suffering from government ennui, a desire for change regardless of performance. Labour’s performance in recent years has been lamentable: the impoverished response to the banking crisis, the waste (non jobs in the public sector) of money in the good times, the Iraq retreat debacle, failure to assert itself in Europe. But none of these are election winners or losers. The great British public invariably vote in general elections based on the economy, incompetence, or boredom but rarely ideology. The government have handled things better than in the dying days of the Major administration but one cannot help thinking that only a collapse by the Tories will lead to anything but a 1979-esque rout.

The smell of power has quietened the rabid right wing dogs and their howls of immigration, EU, and low taxes. The hope is that David Cameron will use the 12 months as thinking time to develop a true ideology leading to economic sustainable growth, a viable ’free’ healthcare system, a resuscitation of our morbid education system, and a foreign policy that puts the UK and its sphere of influence first.

Cameron @ the Open University

Garry — Tue, 26 May 2009 10:35:03 +0000

“No Revolution” but some tinkering necessary and a return of power to the people through personal responsibility, as well as greater independence to individual MPs and accountability of the Executive was the summary of this speech. It feels strange to hear of a right wing leader using the phrase ‘power to the people’ but it is an indication fo where this country has come in the separation of public servants and the public they are meant to serve.
Cameron encapsulated themes he had gone over prior to the expenses row but wrapped them in relevant themes: expenses, over zealous bodies such as the police and councils, ticking of boxes rather than common sense. The theme of subsidiarity is not a new one, I recall John Major using it in an attempt to dilute some typically all encompassing European initiative. However the desire does appear to be there even allowing for the media froth.
I was pleased to see Mr Cameron return to one of my favourite themes of the number of MPs! A reduction of 10% and an equalisation of population sizes is a very good start. It is ridiculous for the UK, especially given the powers of devolution, to have more MPs than India! Also it is farcical that Na h-Eileanan an Iar has 22,000 voters whilst the Isle of Wight has 110,000 voters. This country’s surface area is not so large nor its transport and communications so backward that there is a need for a 5x disparity in (voting) population sizes.
The messy beast that is proportional representation was explicitly torpedoed. I feel that the resulting LibLab concensus would lead us to the constant political mess that is Israel or Italy.
Unfortunately he did not address the West Lothian question, but that is the elephant in the room. It must be addressed in the first post election Parliament.
Europe was addressed by a promise of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty and a desire to have powers returned. I would have thought DC would play this one down since it’s an easy whip to use against his party by the left.
This was a far reaching speech (and my synopsis does not cover all themes) but it was a SMART response to the country’s questions and frustrations.

nb: SMART: http://www.projectsmart.co.uk/smart-goals.html

Michael Martin keeps it short

Garry — Tue, 19 May 2009 13:44:23 +0000

Short and purely factual. Michael Martin eschewed the opportunity to leave with a jibe at his tormenters and to spare us the fake worship by those who were stabbing him in the back and chest just 24 hours previously. One sentence with the key words.
“…I will relinquish the office of Speaker on Sunday 21st June..”
Let’s hope that we can move on from this episode with equal brevity allowing MPs to focus on the key issues and leaving the matter to be sorted out by an independent body in the autumn.

Cameron on R4 and R5

Garry — Tue, 19 May 2009 08:34:12 +0000

An accomplished performance from Cameron obviously mostly about the expenses farce. It’s always uncomfortable dealing with the rants, sometimes rambling, of John Humphreys and of the great British public. He was very quick to respond in a reasonable fashion. Clearly welll coached but I was impressed.
The interview/phone-in moved on to the general election. Cameron pressed again for a July election, an event not seen since 1945 (clearly an extraordinary time) and before that 1902. He also refused to criticise the Speaker. It’s not clear if this is a case of disinterested, uninterested or Machiavellian.

Cameron launches Europe Manifesto

Garry — Mon, 18 May 2009 16:50:45 +0000

Somewhat dwarfed by the Speaker’s speech, David Cameron launched his manifesto for Europe today. He impressed with the first half of his brief oratory. The euro sceptics of the country have long called out for a representative who is not a europhobe. There is a clear distinction to be made between reform within Europe and leaving the cosy club (but that should always be retained as a possible outcome should change not take place). The direct connection of the rebate to CAP reform is vital if a CAP solution is to be found. It is a collective disgrace that farmers of wealthier nations receive more than farmers of poorer nations in what is supposed to be a club of equality. A commitment to attack the gravy train of the Eurocrats was also welcoming.
The second half of the speech was less inspiring. The call for a general election seems ill timed. The reaction of voters in a general election at this time is very much an unknown. Whilst DC has responded well to the expenses debacle, the Conservative vote is still down in polls and may lead to less seats than expected. In twelve months, DC’s reaction will be seen to be a sign of a man in touch with the nation but general disdain for politicians will have subsided resulting in a withering of the votes for the minor parties ensuring a smoother election result. Mr Cameron’s desire for government is understandable but in this case, patience is a virtue.

The Norway Debate

Garry — Mon, 18 May 2009 16:36:51 +0000

To watch the Speaker’s, Michael Martin, performance this afternoon was surreal bordering on the farcical. A perfunct apology was followed by a game of hide and seek behind the legal processes of debate. When finally cornered, the Speaker refused to countenance resignation, immediate or otherwise. It was clear that of those present in the house, the majority were in favour of an unequivocal statement in the opposite direction.
The Speaker may appear to be a victim of misdirected anger, a scapegoat. However it was Mr Martin who actively blocked attempts to use the FOI act to reveal the spending habits of MP’s. His response has been muted in public and obstinate in private. He is totally out of touch with the public mood. His example (his wife’s taxi fares) before this blew up, his failure to step forward as an impartial representative of the house of commons and his subsequent (in)actions clearly warrant his demise.
His supporters have long suggested that his opponents are waging war on a nationalistic (Mr Martin is Scottish) class front. Mr Martin is brusque at best and rude at worst but these are traits present in many of our business and political leaders. He has however been accused (below the parapet) of a lack of impartiality in his running of the house. Mr Martin will have thought long and hard about his response today. Clearly not long and hard enough.

MPs’ Expenses: Crime and Punishment

Garry — Fri, 15 May 2009 12:23:25 +0000

One must congratulate the Daily Telegraph on its ability to spin so much out of its outlay. This has been helped by its fellow media outlets who are still content to feast on the tawdry but irresistable nuggets. The initial reports were of breaking the spirit of the rules and I am not inclined to have MPs pay the money back. Like the public apology, I see no true purpose in it. What is needed is patience and a full redrafting of the manner in which MPs are remunerated and compensated for extraneous expenses. Don’t blame the players, blame the game.

However what we are now faced with are two clear cases of fraudulent activity. It is astonishing that Ray Mallon, the mayor of Middlesbrough has had to ask for a police investigation to be instigated. Former minister Elliot Morley has been suspended from the Parliamentary Labour Party after claiming £16,000 expenses for a mortgage he had already paid off. But when did he pay this back? If recently, then clearly there is a case for arresting and charging him for fraud. Equally husband and wife MPs Andrew MacKay and/or Julie Kirkbride have police questions to answer,

Bank of England Forecast

Garry — Wed, 13 May 2009 09:47:52 +0000

It’s clear that there are so many indicators that the BoE forecast is really just trying to stick the pin on the donkey.
A restriction of growth of 4.5% this year does seem on the dovish side but we shall see. Any upturn will surely be temporary as there needs to be an unwinding of our leveraged position by banks, businesses and households.

Now Blears joins in!

Garry — Sun, 03 May 2009 12:11:14 +0000

It is one thing for disaffected Blairites with delusions of grandeur stabbing you in the back but when a member of your cabinet goes for the hammer and chisel approach, you must question if GB has any control of his charges? Now Ms Blears’ column is 90% sensible: ‘win on policy, not rhetoric or soundbite’, but she is not so naive to realise that this would be twisted by the media to suggest post Brown positioning? Either way GB needs to ditch her at the next opportunity.

Hazel Blears suffers foot in mouth disease

Hazel tells it as she would like to be seen by a future Labour leader:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/02/hazel-blears-labour-gordon-brown

The ‘too late’ support for GB

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erR2S7rvGdM